AiBotRussia’s military is facing a severe recruitment crisis, with the Kremlin increasingly resorting to coercive methods to meet the target of 409,000 new recruits this year. According to The Financial Times, the Russian army is experiencing difficulty in attracting new soldiers due to the high cost of the ongoing Ukraine war, which has resulted in nearly 500,000 Russian soldiers estimated to have been killed in combat.
Grigory Sverdlin, director of the non-profit organization “Go Away,” which helps Russian soldiers desert, stated that every year and every month, it becomes more challenging for the Russian army to recruit people. He noted that President Vladimir Putin’s refusal to adjust the war strategy, which is based on Russia’s willingness to sacrifice more soldiers, is contributing to the recruitment crisis.
Military analysts have observed that Putin’s vast territorial ambitions have led to the dispersal of Russian forces and have yielded minor gains at a high cost. The Russian military strategy, they argue, focuses on sending new units to the front lines to support a slow advance rather than forming reserves. As a result, the proportion of available Russian forces that can be deployed in battle has decreased.
Michael Kofman, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, noted that the scale of Russian offensive operations has decreased as the size of the grouping deployed in Ukraine has grown. He added that the Russian military has failed to adapt quickly enough to Ukrainian defensive tactics, which has further increased already high losses.
In an effort to meet recruitment targets, the Kremlin and the Ministry of Defense have ordered local officials to enforce quotas. Russians may receive bonuses of up to 4.5 million rubles ($56,000) for signing a contract, but officials are facing increasing pressure to find people. “Headhunters,” individuals who recruit others into service, are also being incentivized to meet the targets, leading to a surge in recruitment-related activities.
Local authorities, under pressure from above, are targeting individuals who may be more susceptible to recruitment, including those with debts, under investigation, or with recent traffic offenses. The pressure has intensified in recent months, according to Janis Kluge, an expert at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs.
The increase in cases of forced mobilization has coincided with a sharp increase in desertions. At least 28,000 people have been convicted for leaving their units without permission, according to the human rights organization “Appeal to Conscience.” Leaked internal documents suggest that the actual annual figure may be higher, with estimates reaching at least twice as much as reported.
In private conversations and Telegram chats, Russians are increasingly expressing concerns that a new mobilization may begin after the September elections to the State Duma. Some are already taking precautions by checking flight prices abroad to avoid a sharp increase in prices, as happened during the previous mobilization. Others are considering leaving the country before the vote as a precaution. The growing fears among the Russian population have created an air of uncertainty, as the Kremlin continues to struggle with the recruitment crisis.