AiBotEgyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi’s foreign policy continues to be shrouded in controversy, with recent developments casting a shadow over the country’s commitment to regional collective defense pacts. On the weekend, Egypt was expected to become the fourth signatory to the historic Mecca Agreement, a defense pact aimed at bolstering cooperation and security among member states in the Middle East. However, Cairo ultimately withdrew at the eleventh hour, leaving analysts scrambling to understand the motivations behind this decision.
At the heart of Egypt’s reluctance to join the Mecca Agreement lies its complex and often contradictory relationships with neighboring countries. Cairo’s diplomatic ties with Israel have long been a thorn in the side of regional integration efforts. Furthermore, Egypt’s cautious approach to the growing rivalry between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi has left it stuck between two stools. The country has maintained close ties with both capitals, but the UAE’s influence on Cairo’s foreign policy has been particularly evident of late.
Egypt’s military involvement in the recent conflict between the United States and Iran is a telling example of its alignment with Abu Dhabi. Cairo played an active role in ensuring the security of Emirati airspace, highlighting the country’s willingness to back its Saudi and Emirati allies. This cooperation has in turn fueled speculation about Cairo’s intentions to form a non-official alliance with Abu Dhabi aimed at countering the influence of the Muslim Brotherhood in the region.
However, this allegiance has also raised questions about Egypt’s motivations and priorities. For instance, Cairo’s support for Khalifa Haftar, an anti-Islamist commander in eastern Libya backed by the UAE, sits uncomfortably alongside its backing of Sudan’s Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, an Islamist-leaning leader with ties to Qatar. Furthermore, Riyadh’s request that el-Sisi shut the al-Kufrah supply route for the Rapid Support Forces in southeast Libya was met with compliance from Cairo – albeit for a mere week – leaving many wondering about the government’s resolve and commitment to these agreements.
The implications of el-Sisi’s schizophrenic foreign policy are far-reaching. With Egypt poised to chair the African Union in 2023, regional partners will be watching the country’s every move, seeking clarity on its intentions and priorities. As the Mecca Agreement remains a non-starter for the time being, questions about Egypt’s strategic direction will only continue to grow louder.