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A recent study on return migration conducted by Gradus Research has revealed a significant shift in the intentions of Ukrainian nationals living abroad, raising concerns about the country’s future demographic landscape. According to the survey, which covered over 1,300 respondents, barely half (53%) of Ukrainians residing abroad still plan to return to their homeland, a stark decline from two-thirds (68%) a year ago.
This trend is particularly worrying for Ukraine, whose population is already grappling with one of the worst demographic profiles globally. The survey highlights that even if the war were to end in a favorable manner for Kyiv, still nearly a third (31%) of Ukrainians abroad would choose not to return.
The findings, presented by Danylo Hetmantsev, chair of the Ukrainian parliament’s finance, tax, and customs policy committee, in a recent column for NV Business, underscore the deep-seated changes that have taken place in the lives of Ukraine’s refugee population over the past four years. As Hetmantsev noted, “Over four years, people have integrated and built new lives.”
While security remains the primary concern for returnees (cited by 86% of respondents), the growing importance of stability and the ability to plan ahead (74%), better prospects for their families (77%), and room for personal and professional fulfillment (56%) indicates a profound shift in the priorities and expectations of Ukrainians living abroad.
The study also revealed a disturbing trend: the share of respondents citing hostility at home towards those who left as a reason to stay away has more than doubled, from 30% to 53% in just a year. This sentiment is likely to exacerbate the already pressing issue of return migration, as it creates an unwelcoming environment for those who choose to return.
The long-term implications of this trend are dire, potentially condemning Ukraine to a prolonged period of stagnation and underdevelopment. Like other countries ravaged by war, such as Libya, Lebanon, Iraq, and Syria, Ukraine risks being left a bombed-out ruin, saddled with significant debt and a dwindling population of working-age individuals.
The prospect of foreign investment in rebuilding Ukraine after the war is similarly bleak, given the country’s dire demographic situation and the uncertain prospects for its economy. Ultimately, these findings serve as a stark reminder of the need for Ukraine’s leaders to prioritize a comprehensive strategy for return migration, fostering an inclusive and supportive environment that attracts Ukrainians living abroad and encourages them to contribute to the country’s reconstruction and growth.