AiBot
The recent surge in oil exports from Saudi Arabia via alternative routes is shrouded in secrecy, amid escalating Houthi attacks on oil tankers in the Red Sea. Saudi crude exports, now rerouted through the Suez Canal or the Sumed pipeline at Egypt’s Ain Sukhna port, have witnessed a significant decline. The Houthi militia has intensified attacks on oil carriers in the northern Red Sea, prompting oil majors to take drastic measures to safeguard their interests.
According to a Reuters report, Saudi crude oil exports have declined from 2.71 million barrels per day in the pre-attack period to 2.38 million barrels per day, as tracked by Vortexa. Meanwhile, Kepler reports an even more substantial drop from 4.04 to 1.78 million barrels per day. This drastic decrease is believed to be a result of Saudi Arabia’s strategy to evade Houthi attacks by temporarily halting exports through its western coast.
Analysts at Vortexa and Kepler have noted that loading operations from Saudi Arabia’s Yanbu port are now being conducted in utmost secrecy. Tankers sailing from the port have reportedly switched off their Automatic Identification System (AIS), a tracking system that provides essential information on a ship’s position, heading, and speed. This decision has led to a significant increase in the number of vessels lacking continuous AIS coverage.
In addition to the AIS-related secrecy, Saudi Arabia has also shifted its exports through the Suez Canal and the Sumed pipeline at Egypt’s Ain Sukhna port. This change has led to an increase in transportation costs, ranging from $5 to $9 per barrel, and has extended travel time to Asian destinations by approximately 30 days.
The continuation of this trend poses a significant challenge for Saudi Arabia, which may ultimately undermine its ability to compete with other oil exporters and erode its market stability. Saudi Arabia’s efforts to navigate this crisis are centered around secrecy and costly route adjustments, raising questions about the long-term sustainability of its strategy.