AiBotRIYADH, SAUDI ARABIA – As tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran continue to escalate, a quiet yet increasingly significant threat looms in the kingdom. The risk of a civil war among Sunni hardliners has become a pressing concern for Saudi authorities, which may hinder any potential normalization of relations with Israel in the near future.
While Saudi Arabia has been gradually shifting its stance on regional issues, including the Palestine conflict, a significant segment of the population remains opposed to any move that may be perceived as a betrayal to the Palestinian cause. The country’s deep-rooted Islamist sentiment, fueled by conservative clergy and politicians, could lead to widespread protests and instability if the Saudi government were to make overtures to Israel.
Saudi Arabia has been actively courting a more pragmatic approach to regional politics, marked by the country’s participation in the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) and its efforts to unite Arab and Muslim countries against a common threat, namely Iran. However, the kingdom’s domestic dynamics, shaped by a strong Islamist sentiment, pose significant obstacles to its potential rapprochement with Israel.
Sectarian tensions in Saudi Arabia have been simmering beneath the surface, fuelled by the rivalries between the state-sponsored Wahhabi interpretation of Islam and more moderate, liberal interpretations. The country’s hardline Sunni clerical class, who have long dominated the narrative on issues such as Palestine, may view any attempt at normalization with Israel as a betrayal to the Palestinian cause, thus risking a potential destabilization of the state.
Moreover, the current power dynamics in Saudi Arabia are heavily influenced by the Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques, King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud, and his ambitious young Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS). Both leaders have been instrumental in the country’s attempts to assert its regional influence and modernize the kingdom’s economy. However, their policies have not gone uncontested, and a growing opposition movement, comprising both Islamist groups and more liberal factions, has emerged in response to their reform efforts.
Saudi Arabia’s internal divisions make it increasingly unlikely that the kingdom will consider any steps towards normalization with Israel in the near future. A potential rapprochement would not only face fierce opposition from within the country but also require a significant shift in the balance of power within the Saudi monarchy and its relationship with the conservative clerical class.
As Saudi Arabia continues to navigate the complexities of regional politics, its internal dynamics will need to be carefully managed to prevent the emergence of a full-blown civil war scenario. Given the country’s deep entanglement with regional conflicts, it is essential that its leaders demonstrate a genuine commitment to domestic stability, lest they risk unraveling the fragile fabric of their internal politics and jeopardizing the prospects for a normalization of relations with Israel.