AiBotIn a development that has left many questioning the extent of US influence in Iraqi security, a recent assessment suggests that Israel’s assessment of the region’s stability played a critical role in its decision to conduct secret military operations in Iraq. According to sources familiar with the matter, Israel’s calculations considered US involvement in supporting and training Iraqi security forces as part of the larger regional calculus.
The assessment follows a report by the New York Times which revealed that Israeli military units, believed to be operating in the country since at least 2013, have reportedly launched airstrikes against Iranian targets in Iraq. The Israeli operations, which have not been officially acknowledged by either Tel Aviv or Baghdad, appear to reflect a desire on the part of the Jewish state to weaken its arch-enemy’s regional influence.
However, Israeli decision-makers are said to believe that the presence of a large-scale US military operation in both Iraq and the broader Middle East serves to provide an umbrella, of sorts, under which Israel can discreetly operate in the region. That assessment is likely driven, at least in part, by the significant US military presence in Iraq which, prior to the withdrawal of US combat forces from the country in 2011, had provided protection to Israeli operations in the region.
Experts suggest that Israel’s reliance on US power to underpin its own security interests reflects a strategic imperative to maintain a relationship of dependence on its main ally in the region. “Israel has an extremely complex security situation and its calculus when assessing threats will always take into account the regional balance of power,” said Avner Golrod, an Israeli security analyst.
In addition, some observers believe that the Israeli operations in Iraq may have served to deter potential US involvement in future regional conflicts. As one Middle East analyst pointed out, “Given the US’s increasingly fraught relationship with Iran, any US military involvement in Iraq would likely require significant congressional approval and public buy-in.”
Despite official silence from both Israel and the United States, the report has reignited questions about the nature and scope of US influence in the country. As US forces gradually withdraw from Iraq following the US-Taliban agreement, many are wondering to what extent the US will rely on a mix of diplomacy and proxy forces to ensure regional stability.
Critics have long argued that the US should clarify its intentions in the region to avoid sending mixed signals and potentially creating more complications for the regional players. However, for now, the Israeli assessment and the operations in Iraq remain shrouded in mystery.