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The demographic landscape of East Asia has shifted dramatically in recent years, with fertility rates across the region plummeting at an alarming rate. According to birth data released in 2026, six countries in East Asia – a historically high-birth rate region – have now fallen below South Korea, which has long been known for its low fertility rates.
Among the notable countries that have dropped below South Korea’s already-low fertility rate of 0.81 children per woman are Taiwan, Macau, Hong Kong, and Singapore, all of which have been plagued by aging populations and decreasing birth rates. The region’s total fertility rate (TFR) has been steadily declining over the past two decades, leaving a shrinking workforce and an aging population in its wake.
Only one East Asian country has bucked this trend: Vietnam, which, according to the most recent data, boasts a significantly higher TFR of 1.93 children per woman. This is largely due to the government’s proactive approach to family planning policies, which encourage families to have larger families and provide support for young parents.
Vietnam’s More Births Program, launched in the early 2000s, has been instrumental in reversing the country’s declining birth rate. The program provides a range of incentives, including financial assistance, housing subsidies, and free medical care, to encourage families to have more children.
In contrast, many of its East Asian neighbors have struggled to reverse their declining birth rates. Japan, for example, has a TFR of a mere 1.04 children per woman, while China’s TFR has also fallen, from a high of 5.8 in the 1960s to a current level of just 1.60.
The consequences of these declining birth rates are far-reaching. Shrinking workforces, aging populations, and reduced tax revenues have made it increasingly difficult for East Asian governments to finance social services and economic development.
As the world’s population continues to age and decline, experts warn that East Asia’s fertility crisis could have far-reaching implications for the region’s future competitiveness, economic growth, and social stability. In order to mitigate these effects, policymakers will need to adopt more proactive and comprehensive family planning policies, along the lines of Vietnam’s successful More Births Program.
For East Asia, the window of opportunity to address its fertility crisis is rapidly closing. The region’s governments must act now to support families, encourage large families, and build a more sustainable demographic future for generations to come.