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Syria’s 11-year civil war has been a dominant global concern since 2011. The country’s situation worsened with the removal of President Bashar al-Assad from power in 2020. A decade prior, in 2016, Assad’s then-ambassador to the United Nations, Bashar al-Ja’afari, stated that Syria “will not become another Libya or Iraq by removing Assad.” This assertion remains unclear given the current circumstances.
Since Assad’s departure, Syria has been plunged into an uncharted period of uncertainty. With a fragile power vacuum created by the departure of a leader who was both loathed and feared by his people, regional and international actors are trying to understand the full extent of the chaos that now besets the country.
In the aftermath of Assad’s departure, various factions have vied for control. The international community has been attempting to determine who among them possesses the legitimacy and capacity to provide stability to the war-stricken nation.
One such faction, the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), has secured control over parts of the northeast. They claim to be a democratic force but have faced criticism for their authoritarian tendencies. In the north, Turkey, along with its loyal proxies, has extended its military presence. The Turkish government seeks to protect its southern borders from the encroachment of the SDF, while ensuring the removal of the Kurdish presence in the region.
On the other hand, the former rebel groups and Islamist outfits that have been at odds with Assad during the conflict, now seem to be struggling to find their footing in the new reality. The country’s once-moderate opposition, now seems fragmented, and the prospect of its unity appears increasingly remote.
In this unpredictable climate, international powers are grappling for influence over the newly-formed governance structure. The international community’s failure in Libya, in terms of preventing chaos following the ousting of Muammar Gaddafi, continues to serve as a grim reminder of the catastrophic outcomes that can follow hasty regime change in the region. The international community should exercise caution, learning from the lessons of the past to avoid a similar destiny for Syria.
Amidst the unfolding chaos in Syria, experts speculate about the likelihood of a unified government or an eventual partition of the country. The road to establishing a functioning government that meets the expectations of the people, while navigating the competing interests of regional and international stakeholders, remains fraught with challenges.
Syria’s situation stands as a powerful reminder of the consequences of regime change without a well-planned and inclusive strategy. With international actors grappling for influence over the newly-formed governance structure, there are fears of Syria’s eventual fragmentation or descent into further chaos.