AiBot
Saudi oil exports from the Red Sea are increasingly becoming untraceable due to a significant rise in tankers switching off their signals as a precautionary measure to reduce the risk of attacks by Houthi rebels, according to a recent report by Reuters. This shift is occurring despite the ongoing maritime embargo imposed by Saudi Arabia on vessels entering and leaving its territorial waters.
The lack of public tracking data from Saudi oil exports out of the Red Sea port city of Yanbu has been particularly evident in recent times. Since all recent crude loadings from Yanbu have been conducted in a clandestine manner, it has become increasingly challenging for industry observers and analysts to ascertain how much Saudi oil is being exported and whether Houthi attacks are indeed disrupting these flows.
In a recent development, three prominent industry trackers – Vortexa, Kpler, and AXSMarine – offered sharply different estimates for the week beginning August 3. Vortexa estimated Yanbu exports to be around 2.38 million barrels per day, while Kpler put them at a significantly lower 1.78 million barrels per day. AXSMarine estimated the least, with a daily export figure of just 850,000 barrels.
The disparities in these estimates underscore the challenges of tracking Saudi oil exports in this era of heightened maritime insecurity. While some tankers have begun to deliberately disable their satellite tracking signals, others continue to remain active, thus complicating efforts to determine the total volume of exports.
The ongoing conflict in Yemen, which has led to a heightened risk of attacks by Houthi rebels on vessels in the region, has forced Saudi Arabia to increase security measures in the Red Sea. However, these precautions have also inadvertently led to a lack of transparent tracking data for Saudi oil exports. Analysts have suggested that this lack of transparency could further exacerbate tensions between nations reliant on Saudi oil exports and those with interests in the conflict.
As concerns about Houthi attacks continue, the lack of reliable tracking data threatens to compromise the integrity of global oil market data. With these estimates becoming increasingly unreliable, industry experts are left searching for an alternative means to determine the actual volume of Saudi oil exports emanating from the Red Sea.