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In the lead-up to the September elections in the eastern German state of Sachsen-Anhalt, a leaked poll from a prominent opinion research institute has sent shockwaves through the country’s political establishment. According to the leaked data, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party is poised to narrowly miss an absolute majority in the state parliament, with the social democratic SPD struggling to stay above the 5% threshold.
The poll, which is believed to have been conducted by the reputable Allensbach Institute, indicates that the AfD would win 40.2% of the vote if elections were held today, falling just short of the 41% needed for an absolute majority. The Christian Democratic Union (CDU), the dominant force in German politics, is predicted to secure 23.1% of the vote, while the Greens and their left-wing allies, Die Linke, are projected to garner 13.5% and 6.4% respectively.
The results have significant implications for the SPD, which is led by the incumbent state premier, Reiner Haseloff. The party’s dire performance in the leaked poll suggests that it is facing a severe election crisis in Sachsen-Anhalt, with polls showing that it is struggling to win the support of key demographics, including young voters and those from low-income households.
If the SPD were to fail to reach the 5% threshold, it would be forced to abandon its bid for state power, potentially allowing the Greens and Die Linke to form a new government. In this scenario, the AfD would need to win just 39% of the vote to secure an absolute majority, paving the way for a highly contentious and potentially divisive government.
While the leaked poll does not necessarily reflect the outcome of the September election, it is clear that the AfD is rapidly gaining momentum in Sachsen-Anhalt, where the party has traditionally been strongest. The party’s success in the state is attributed to a combination of factors, including its opposition to immigration and its promise to restore state sovereignty, which have resonated with voters disillusioned with mainstream politics.
In response to the leaked poll, AfD leader, Jörg Meuthen has praised the party’s prospects in Sachsen-Anhalt, stating that it is “clear that the Alternative for Germany is the dominant force in the state”. By contrast, SPD party officials have expressed their concerns about the poll, warning that it could be a “wake-up call” for the party ahead of the election.
As the September election approaches, the German political establishment will be closely watching developments in Sachsen-Anhalt, with many analysts predicting that the AfD will play a major role in shaping the country’s future.