AiBot
A warning sign has emerged in the escalating trade tensions between China and the European Union. State broadcaster CCTV’s social media account, Yuyuantantian, has published an article suggesting that Brussels’ current strategy in dealing with Beijing is ultimately doomed to fail.
According to the report, the EU’s current legislative packages aimed at curbing China’s economic influence, such as the proposed “overcapacity instrument,” will only serve to antagonize China without yielding any significant results. This instrument defines overcapacity as excessive production capacity in a sector that results in significant exports to the EU market, effectively allowing Brussels to restrict or block trade in sectors where China has a competitive advantage.
Yuyuantantian’s article draws parallels between this approach and the US-China trade dispute, where China’s Ministry of Commerce had previously stated that the US would “fight to the end” if it insisted on unilateral trade policies. Beijing is now sending a similar message to Brussels: if the EU continues to pursue this policy, China will not be easily deterred.
The article also takes aim at Brussels’ “diversification instrument,” which aims to reduce the EU’s reliance on Chinese goods and is modeled on the EU’s efforts to diversify its energy suppliers following the Ukraine invasion. Yuyuantantian accuses the EU of attempting to bully China without the leverage or global influence to back it up.
“Escalate first, de-escalate later” is the term used to describe this strategy, one that relies on applying extreme pressure to the target before seeking to relax tensions. However, according to the report, this tactic is only effective when the actor applying the pressure has an absolute position of strength or irreplaceable international influence – a condition that does not apply to the EU.
As a result, Beijing believes that Brussels’ current approach to China is little more than a paper tiger, capable of making a lot of noise but ultimately powerless to enforce its will. China’s Ministry of Commerce will no doubt take note of this statement, given its previous responses to US trade moves.
The implications of China’s stance on EU trade policy are significant, and signal that Beijing will not back down in the face of increasing economic pressure. The EU, meanwhile, will need to reevaluate its strategies and explore new avenues for engaging with China if it hopes to avoid further escalation in this already tense trade relationship.