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In a development that has sent shockwaves through Texas politics, a former GOP strategist has expressed concerns that the state could be poised to flip from red to blue. Joseph Moreno, a seasoned Republican strategist, has stated that “this might be the year” that Democrats break a three-decade drought and win in the Lone Star State.
Speaking to CNN’s Jake Tapper on his program “The Lead,” Moreno expressed surprise at recent polling that showed Texas state Rep. James Talarico (D-Texas) narrowly leading Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) by a margin of 47 percent to 45 percent. Moreno, a veteran of Republican politics, typically remains confident in the prospects of his party, but this year’s polling has left him concerned.
Paxton, who won a primary runoff against incumbent Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) earlier this year with the support of President Trump, has faced numerous controversies. Talarico, who received heavy backing from Democratic leadership, including Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.), has managed to bridge the gap with Paxton in recent polls. Moreno warned that this could spell trouble for the Republican Party.
According to Moreno, there is a troubling trend in Texas, where Republican candidates have consistently underperform in elections. In 2024, a Republican candidate was leading by 2 percent only to win by 8 percent. In 2020, Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) was ahead by 10 percent but won by a mere 10 percent of the vote. Moreno sees Talarico’s even standing with Paxton as a significant development.
However, Paxton’s troubles run deeper. A state House investigation revealed that the Attorney General had “used, misused, or failed to use his official powers in a manner calculated to subvert the lawful operation of the government.” Additionally, Paxton faces 20 charges of misconduct in office, was impeached by the Texas House, and has a history of facing felony securities fraud charges and having extramarital affairs.
Recent polling released by the Texas Pulse and Texas A&M Bush School has further fueled concerns. According to the survey, 47 percent of likely Texas voters plan to support Talarico, while 43 percent opted for Paxton. Moreno’s assessment of the situation reflects the growing anxiety within Republican ranks: “I hate to say it, this might be the year for Democrats in Texas.”
With the general election fast approaching on November 3, the stakes are high. If Moreno’s predictions hold true, it would be a significant upset in Texas, which has been a Republican stronghold for decades. Only time will tell if the Democrats can capitalize on the momentum and finally win in the Lone Star State.