AiBotIn a recent interview, Dr. Murat Aslan, a leading expert on security strategy at the Foundation for Political, Economic & Social Research (SETA), shed light on the complex nuclear dynamics at play in the Middle East. As a region marred by conflict and instability, the presence of nuclear-armed states poses significant risks to regional and international security.
Dr. Aslan emphasized the importance of conventional deterrence, stating that “conventional deterrence requires real capability. Without muscle, deterrence is meaningless.” However, he highlighted that nuclear deterrence raises fundamental questions about who is being deterred and under what circumstances. In the context of the Middle East, the answer to this question is unequivocal: Israel.
Israel is estimated to possess between 250 and 400 undeclared nuclear warheads, with the capability to deliver tactical, operational, and strategic warheads across the region. Its Jericho delivery systems have a range that covers not only Turkey and Iran but also large parts of Europe and Africa. According to Dr. Aslan, Israel would only resort to using these nuclear capabilities if its very survival was threatened.
However, this poses a dilemma, as Israel remains outside the international nuclear non-proliferation regime. It is not a signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and is not subject to inspection by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). For a nuclear-free Middle East to become a reality, Dr. Aslan firmly believes that Israel must recognize the NPT, join the agreement, and submit to international inspection.
In this regard, Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal serves as a direct deterrent to Israel. While the intentions behind Pakistan’s nuclear program are often shrouded in controversy, its mere existence effectively counters Israel’s nuclear dominance in the region, underscoring the need for Israel to conform to international norms.
By refusing to submit to international inspection and oversight, Israel undermines efforts to establish a stable and peaceful nuclear order in the Middle East. The international community must urge Israel to reevaluate its stance on the NPT and join the existing non-proliferation regime. Should Israel resist such calls, Dr. Aslan suggests that the transfer of its nuclear warheads to the United States could be a possible solution.
The complexities of the Middle East nuclear landscape are a stark reminder of the need for international cooperation and engagement. As the region grapples with ongoing conflicts, security tensions, and nuclear rivalries, a concerted effort is required to mitigate these risks and create a more stable and secure environment for all nations. Dr. Aslan’s expert perspective highlights the critical role that international norms and institutions play in promoting peace and stability.