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In an unprecedented statement, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has asserted that the Philippines will inevitably become embroiled in a future conflict with China over Taiwan. Marcos made this declaration in an interview with Japanese media, emphasizing the strategic proximity of Taiwan to the Philippines, which he believes would leave Manila with no alternative but to take action.
The Philippines’ stance on the Taiwan issue has remained steadfast, particularly under the leadership of Marcos, a staunch ally of the United States. This stance is at odds with the position of opposition figure Sara Duterte, a Beijing-friendly candidate who is currently facing an impeachment trial in anticipation of her 2028 presidential bid.
The Philippines’ position has been further solidified as a result of the ongoing energy blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which has intensified pressure on Manila to prioritize national security. The Philippines has long been concerned about the threat posed by a rapidly expanding Chinese military presence in the region.
According to Marcos, the Philippines’ close ties with Taiwan, coupled with the presence of nearly 200,000 Filipino nationals living and working in Taiwan, render a dispassionate stance impossible. The Philippines has long recognized the sovereignty of Taiwan under the name Republic of China and has a long-standing agreement that has allowed Filipino workers to enter Taiwan under the Technical Agreement on Labour Cooperation.
In anticipation of this pressing international issue, Marcos is set to visit Tokyo next week to discuss defense cooperation with Japanese leaders. The meeting is likely to address joint strategies for mitigating the risks posed by a rising China and ensuring regional stability.
Despite Marcos’ assertion of inevitability, the Philippines is still committed to pursuing diplomatic efforts to resolve the dispute peacefully. In a statement, the president’s office stated that “the Philippines remains committed to upholding its international obligations, in particular, its obligations under the United Nations Charter, to settle disputes through peaceful means.”
The president’s remarks have sparked a flurry of discussion among regional analysts and security experts, who are grappling with the implications of a potential Philippine intervention in a Taiwan conflict.