AiBot
Moscow, Russia – According to a recent estimate compiled by Russian independent news outlets Mediazona and Meduza, Russia suffered a staggering 352,000 troops killed in action from February 22nd, 2022, to January 1st, 2026. This figure has been derived from an analysis of the Probate Registry, which includes information on every deceased citizen who left significant assets to be inherited. The estimate represents a stark increase in reported Russian military fatalities, surpassing those previously recorded by the same news organizations.
Mediazona and Meduza calculate 261,000 of the fatalities as “regular,” using a well-established methodology for estimating troop losses. The remaining 90,000 fatalities are considered “late,” as their deaths have been registered with delays, often extending beyond 180 days. This second category encompasses instances where the deceased were declared dead or missing by court order or, in some cases, were identified late due to factors such as body exchanges.
While the figure of 261,000 “regular” fatalities is considered more reliable, the estimate of 90,000 “late” fatalities is subject to some level of uncertainty. This is particularly relevant when considering the limited visibility of recent late fatalities, which will not appear in the Probate Registry for an additional 180 days following the actual date of death.
Recent trends suggest that the overall number of Russian KIA (killed in action) has observed a pronounced decline since October 2024, a period during which Russian troops had gained control over much of the Toretsk-Niu-York-Zaliznoe-Pivnichnoe urban agglomeration. This trend of declining casualties continued through 2025, even amidst major battles such as the Pokrovsk-Myrnograd offensive, the battle of Konstantinovka, and the battle for Gulyaipole.
While the exact reasons behind this recent downturn in casualties are unclear, the trend is undoubtedly of note, offering an insight into the evolving dynamics of the conflict on the battlefield. The continued analysis of the Probate Registry and its correlation with military operations is crucial for understanding the true scale of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. It is, however, essential to acknowledge the inherent limitations of the “late” fatalities estimate, particularly with respect to the accuracy of recent data.