AiBotMoscow’s military advantage, built on its willingness to sacrifice more soldiers, is under threat as Russia’s army struggles to recruit sufficient personnel. The Financial Times reports that coercive methods, including kidnapping and tricking students into joining the army, are increasingly being employed by Russian recruiters. These tactics come as Putin’s refusal to adjust his war strategy continues to bear high costs.
According to Grigory Sverdlin, director of the non-profit organization “Go Away,” which assists Russian soldiers in deserting, the burden on Moscow’s recruitment efforts has grown significantly. “Every year and every month, it becomes more and more difficult for the Russian army to recruit people… Putin is clearly postponing a new wave of mobilization, so the Ministry of Defense has to increase pressure on various categories of people to sign contracts,” Sverdlin notes.
Military analysts suggest that Putin’s territorial ambitions and the corresponding dispersal of Russian forces have led to inefficient use of manpower. As pointed out by Michael Kofman, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, a larger army size has not necessarily translated to greater combat effectiveness, as the proportion of deployed troops has decreased. “The scale of Russian offensive operations has decreased as the size of the grouping deployed in Ukraine has grown,” Kofman observes, adding that Russia’s failure to adapt quickly to Ukrainian defensive tactics has further exacerbated its losses.
Preliminary estimates from Western governments indicate that nearly 500,000 Russian soldiers have been killed in combat during the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. Ukraine claims that the number of Russian deaths reached 131,000 this year alone. This suggests that ongoing mobilization efforts are not sufficient to sustain the current pace of combat operations, and analysts warn of impending defeats on the battlefield.
Despite recruitment quotas set at 409,000 people for this year, officials are facing mounting pressure to meet the demand. Local officials, who know individuals with outstanding debts, pending investigations, or recent penalties, are targeting these groups in order to secure contract signings. These measures have spawned an illicit industry of “headhunters” who are contracted by authorities to contact potential recruits directly. As Janis Kluge, an expert at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, notes, “Local authorities are under enormous pressure: they are obliged to recruit enough soldiers every year… They know who has debts, who is under investigation, and who has recently lost their driver’s license, and they are targeting these men.”
In a further indication of the army’s growing strain, desertion figures have surged to at least 28,000 convictions for leaving units without permission, according to the human rights organization “Appeal to Conscience.” Internal documents obtained by the Ukrainian analytical group Frontelligence Insight suggest an even higher annual desertion rate, of at least twice as high.
In private conversations and Telegram chats, concerns about a potential new mobilization following the September elections to the State Duma are spreading among Russians. Some individuals are reportedly exploring emergency visa applications or contemplating early departures from the country to avoid a potential rise in living costs.