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The White House has expressed concerns over the UK’s ability to meet its pledge to raise defence spending to 5% of GDP, a promise that was made to alleviate pressure from the previous US administration under former President Donald Trump. According to officials, some European allies may have made a “false promise” to satiate Trump’s demands, leaving the West vulnerable in its efforts to strengthen NATO’s collective defence posture.
The anxiety has been heightened as Labour Party leader, Andy Burnham, prepares to take over as Britain’s prime minister in the wake of a potential leadership change within the Conservative party. Burnham has signalled his support for higher defence spending, but the British government’s defence strategy, due for release later this year, is likely to delay setting a target date to meet the widely agreed NATO benchmark of 3% of GDP.
White House officials are increasingly worried that Britain may join a club of European nations, including Germany, France, Italy, and Greece, which consistently fail to meet the 2% spending target. This lack of commitment has significant implications for NATO’s collective defence capabilities, particularly in the face of an increasingly assertive Russia and a growing global security threat from China.
The decision by UK defence secretaries in the past has been influenced by the country’s economic constraints. Despite growing concerns, successive governments have struggled to reconcile ambitious spending targets with fiscal realities. As a result, the current commitment to a 2025 target of raising defence spending to £53.6 billion may yet prove elusive.
NATO officials, though, are more circumspect, saying that while Britain’s commitment is welcome, the alliance cannot force individual member states to raise defence spending. Instead, the focus remains on encouraging all member states to reach a sustainable and consistent level of spending to meet the agreed 2% target.
Andy Burnham has not provided any clear timeline on meeting the 3% target in the forthcoming defence plan. The Labour leader’s position is expected to shape Britain’s stance on defence spending in the coming months, which may have significant implications for the White House’s concerns over the UK’s commitment to bolstering NATO defence.