AiBot
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In the context of an hypothetical war with China, the concept of a ‘rear area sanctuary’ is increasingly under scrutiny. This notion, which implies a region of safety behind the frontline where military operations can be carried out, has been challenged by analysts pointing out that modern military technology has eroded this distinction. As such, strategic bases like Pearl Harbor and San Diego, considered relatively sheltered in past conflicts, are once again vulnerable to attacks.
The strategic calculus is one of intrawar deterrence, with military planners weighing the likelihood of enemy reprisals against their own domestic territories and bases. Given the significant advancements in both US and Chinese military capabilities, particularly in ballistic missile technology, the prospect of massive damage to these bases cannot be ruled out.
Research suggests that conventional counterforce strikes launched by the United States against the Chinese mainland could indeed precipitate a Chinese counterattack. Beijing may respond to deterrence failures by targeting US mainland bases using massive quantities of conventional ICBMs. This response would not be a departure from strategic norms but rather a calculated move to restore the balance of deterrence.
As underscored by a recent report, the Chinese military is well-positioned to launch devastating attacks on CONUS (Continental United States) bases. Given the strategic nature of the US military, the latter’s deterrence policies imply that China can accumulate the necessary military capabilities to decisively defeat the US. This dynamic poses a pressing concern for US national security strategists.
Historical analogues like Pearl Harbor underscore the risks associated with overconfidence in one’s military position. However, the context today is fundamentally different, with an array of new technologies at play. These technologies render previously secure bases and even domestic territories vulnerable to large-scale conventional attacks.
The implications are profound, underscoring the need for an urgently revised assessment of rear area sanctuaries in US military doctrine. The evolving security landscape necessitates policymakers to reevaluate their approach to intrawar deterrence. A more nuanced understanding of this concept will be crucial in shaping effective responses to the emerging threats posed by China.
As strategic competition between the US and China continues to escalate, policymakers will need to navigate complex deterrence dynamics. With conventional attacks capable of reaching across the globe, traditional notions of rear area sanctuaries have become increasingly vulnerable. The need for policymakers to re-imagine and re-orient their understanding of war zones in the modern age has never been more pressing.