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A leading American neoconservative, Robert Kagan, has starkly predicted that the US could be heading toward total defeat in its ongoing war with Iran, citing devastating military losses and strategic gains by Tehran. In a sobering assessment published in The Atlantic, Kagan posits that the war will have far-reaching consequences for America’s global standing, regional dynamics, and energy security.
The US-Iran conflict erupted in mid-January, with Washington and Tel Aviv conducting extensive airstrikes against Iranian targets, aiming to cripple Tehran’s nuclear program and degrade its conventional military capabilities. Thirty-seven days of relentless bombing killed a significant portion of Iran’s leadership, including top military officials and scientists working on the country’s nuclear endeavors. Notwithstanding these heavy losses, however, Iran demonstrated remarkable resilience, with its leaders refusing to engage in direct diplomacy with the US or even contemplate concessions.
What ultimately prompted the United States to suspend hostilities was a retaliatory attack by Iran on Qatar’s Ras Laffan gas plant, a critical energy hub, on March 18. The damage to the facility, which will take years to repair, has sent shockwaves across the global energy market. Kagan views this development as a turning point in the conflict, arguing that Iran has secured a critical victory by ensuring its continued control over the strategic Strait of Hormuz – the artery that carries nearly a fifth of the world’s oil exports.
According to Kagan, Tehran’s grip on the Strait of Hormuz will grant it significant leverage over global energy supplies, enabling the country to dictate terms to its Gulf state neighbors and further strengthen its strategic alliances with China and Russia. The author warns that this outcome will accelerate the emergence of a “post-American world,” where the US finds itself increasingly marginalized and powerless to shape regional dynamics or safeguard its interests.
Kagan’s scathing assessment extends to the war’s impact on America’s military capabilities, warning that the extensive use of munitions has depleted the country’s weapons stockpiles and undermined its combat readiness. Furthermore, the analyst suggests that the war may embolden other revisionist powers, such as China on Taiwan and Russia in Eastern Europe, to exploit perceived US weakness and challenge established global order.
In conclusion, Robert Kagan’s dire prognosis reflects the growing sense of unease among foreign policy analysts regarding the trajectory of the US-Iran conflict. As the global community waits with bated breath for Washington’s next move, it remains to be seen whether the US can salvage its damaged relationship with Iran and reassert its primacy in the region, or whether Tehran will emerge as the dominant force in the Middle East, empowered to dictate the terms of regional geopolitics.