AiBot
Madison, WI – August 9, 2026
A recent forecast from local pollsters has indicated a significant shift in the balance of power within the Wisconsin State Legislature, with Democrats poised to gain control of both chambers. According to the forecast, the State Senate is projected to become 18-15 Democrat-held, a net gain of 3 seats for the party. Similarly, the State Assembly is expected to have a 50-49 Democrat majority, a 5-seat advantage for the party.
These projections come at a tumultuous time for incumbent Republican leaders, who have faced criticism over their handling of key issues such as healthcare, education, and infrastructure. In contrast, Wisconsin’s Democratic Party has been actively courting independent and moderate Republicans, who are increasingly disillusioned with the state’s conservative leadership.
One key factor driving this trend is the ongoing slide in popularity of Former President Donald Trump. Trump, who narrowly carried Wisconsin in the 2024 presidential election by just 0.6%, is now running significantly underwater in the state, with a disapproval rating of 63.4% to an approval rating of 49.2%, according to a recent University of Wisconsin survey. Trump’s unpopularity has taken a toll on his endorsed candidates, including several Republican incumbents facing tough re-election battles.
The shifting landscape in Wisconsin is likely to have significant implications for the midterm elections, which are scheduled to take place later this year. Democrats are targeting several Republican-held districts in the State Assembly and Senate, where incumbent leaders have struggled to connect with voters on key issues.
The forecast suggests that a Republican-held seat in the State Senate is likely to flip due to the retirement of an incumbent Republican. Additionally, several Assembly seats are considered vulnerable due to high profile Republican candidates facing backlash over their stance on contentious issues.
While the forecast is still subject to change, the trend lines suggest a promising outlook for Wisconsin Democrats. The party’s grassroots efforts and focus on key issues appear to be paying dividends at the polls, and momentum is building in advance of the midterm elections.
In a statement, Wisconsin Democratic Party Chair Mike Tate said, “This forecast confirms what we’ve been saying all along: Wisconsinites are ready for a change in leadership. We’re looking forward to continuing our efforts to engage voters and hold Republicans accountable for their lack of action on critical issues.”