AiBotChina’s crude oil imports declined for the second consecutive month in June, custom data revealed on Tuesday. This downward trend marks a significant shift from June 2025’s import levels, with June’s imports being more than 40% lower compared to the same period last year. The sustained slump in crude oil purchases can be attributed to the ongoing limitations on refined fuel exports, which have led to reduced refining operations in the country.
The Chinese government has imposed a ban on the export of refined fuels, forcing domestic refineries to operate at a reduced capacity. This move has translated into a significant decrease in crude oil imports, as refineries are now required to import less oil to meet domestic demand. The suppressed demand for crude oil has in turn served as a stabilizing factor in the global oil market, mitigating the impact of recent rallies in oil prices.
However, industry experts anticipate a reversal of this trend in July, following the announcement to lift restrictions on refined fuel exports. This shift in policy is likely to translate into increased refining activities, potentially leading to a surge in crude oil imports in the coming months. As China’s domestic oil demand is expected to increase, the country’s crude oil import levels are anticipated to rise accordingly.
This policy change has sparked renewed optimism among energy analysts, who believe that it could have a substantial impact on global crude oil prices. A return to pre-restriction crude oil import levels would necessitate a significant increase in the country’s crude oil purchases, further bolstering demand in the global oil market. The subsequent price impact is expected to be substantial, particularly if other major oil-producing and consuming nations follow China’s lead in relaxing refined fuel export restrictions.
The impact of this shift in global crude oil demand is still being evaluated by traders and analysts across the globe. However, it is clear that a relaxation of the refined fuel export restrictions will significantly alter China’s crude oil import dynamics, paving the way for a surge in global crude oil demand.